I'm not convinced chapters have 10-15 years. My prediction is many chapters will either be strong or gone in three years.
Here are a couple of reasons:
1. The economy - budget cuts are real and will be around for a few years even if the economy starts to swing back later this fall.

The economy challenges also give members a PC excuse for dropping membership if they have not gotten the relevant value they sought. No one is surprised and few challenge when someone can no longer afford to belong.

2. The experience - Members are seeking meaningful experiences in their involvement. Many chapters are being run on an auto-pilot program that was launched decades ago. Same people, same programs, not welcoming for others to get involved.

3. The leaders - Members with expectations for relevant value and meaningful experiences put new expectations on traditional leaders.

Leaders need to transform their leadership style to be more inclusive rather than doing it all themselves. The martyr approach is a volunteer repellent. It's no wonder volunteers feel overburdened and unable to run chapters! The problem: They usually do not know any other way - and it's reinforced by the culture of the chapter and association.

4. The competition to connect - People are hungry for connections - especially with the economy so interesting. If you follow Twitter, you probably know folks are meeting up and tweeting up all the time. PodCamp, BarCamps and more offer fabulous education experiences - usually for a small investment if any. All run by volunteers. Happening all over.
People are showing up when the value is there. If your chapters are struggling, it's because value is missing - not necessarily that no one wants to volunteer or be part of a community relevant to your association.

Your chapters have got to be able to compete with these dynamic, community strong, high-value, fun experiences. Many currently do not.
　
So what's an association to do?
1. Streamline processes - Requests should be meaningful and relevant.

2. Tap the potential of technology - and teach your leaders how to do it effectively too.

3. Train your leaders sooner - waiting for PE or President is too late. They need to know how to be more effective as committee chairs and new board members. They need to be competent at running dynamic meetings, dealing with diverse opinions and getting others involved. When many are involved, running a chapter is not an overload scenario.

4. Focus on offering meaningful experiences with relevant value - Be in the position for members to get their needs met within your chapter - otherwise they may fall in love with something else and take their time with them.

(c) 2009 Cynthia D'Amour, Host of the Chapter Leaders Playground http://www.chapterleadersplayground.org